The Sunny Side of Economic Collapse
What a ridiculous time. As as child poverty smashes through records and predictions of a looming crash gather we examine what light there is, anywhere.
If we build a picture of a reality, a lived experience, we can then map our way through what a safe passage might look like in the growing storm.
Most people find economics truly, very boring. But if you're feed isn't full of Prof G, Katty Kay or the amazingly accurate prediction machine Richard Murphy - the only indication you might have that things aren't too rosy, is that you're skint.
Symptoms Of Poverty
The Summer Holiday Hunger Gap is a news event covered annually in the UK, made worse by caps on funding - it means not hundreds, not thousands, but millions of young children go hungry in the out of school months.
But when that hunger drips through into winter time, we have a problem.
Wages, adjusted to inflation show families are only just making the bills so do we have a problem? Slowing job markets hit the most vulnerable hardest, they are the first to have to battle with meagre reserves. Does that predict a problem?
The harshest indicator that there is going to be a problem is the widely accepted cost of living crisis, which is already making politics spicy and is predicted to get worse.
One of the worse culprits - the cost of energy.
Jillian Ambrose
Changemakers
The cost of living, the cost of energy and the will to change have some added levers, which not everyone will take a hold of.
Students of economics (that again) will tell you that some of the leanest most successful companies emerge from the cycles of recession.
Anna Flockett
Right now, as energy costs rise dynamic companies like NexGen, DiscreteHeat, Adaptavate, Becker & Wolf - the list is growing - are making waves as they finesse lean operating models, and innovate with new products. And they all have similar qualities.
They are connecting to the needs of the market - faster than their competitors.
They are using tools - like social media more effectively. They are expanding into markets making partnerships and collaborations with swift footed deals and canny connections.
They understand humans - if you meet them, their employees. They are populated with great people.
And in a time of crisis when errors are amplified, quick witted and agile companies have the edge.
Consumer Demands
Global reporting shows that demand for bio materials, in building is rocketing.
Ganesh Chandwade
Renewable energy is already saving the country millions.
Fiona Harvey
So if the building material for a green future are in demand, the energy for a green future are in demand. What does this mean for one of the keystones of energy use, retrofit?
These Companies Will Win And Here's Why
There are going to be winners and there's a number of reasons.
Builders and Local SME's
Decentralising and devolved government in the UK will drive retrofit growth in small to medium sized building firms. Companies like Stewart Chapmans Cornerstone Construction who are adapting to bio materials and hyper efficient local skills building models - will win.
Community Retrofit CIC's
We will see an explosion in community led apprenticeship and SME startups which support economies in cities and town, the pioneer of this is the WeCanMake team in Bristol, currently upgrading a batch of houses in Knowle West. Led by demand they will flourish.
Bio Materials
Indinature, Adaptavate, Unyte group. One thing in common. Innovation in bio materials, specifically hemp (but flax, wool, straw and sisal are in with a shout). As consumers start the switch from gypsum, to lime, plastic and foam to hemp, the affordability, provision and popularity of bio materials will boom.
We won! Manufacturer of the Year 2025 from UK Green Business Awards
Solar and Batteries
Solar is going to get a boost in this years budget. Not a small one either.
But consumers don't want to be sold to - so any solar company that isn't adapting with basic tools like Hotjar (behaviour), Pipedrive (funnel), and Ghost (de-platforming social) will languish as lead generation companies drive consumers away from 'hard sell' to companies that inform first.
Likewise battery storage - the orphan of retrofit. Rejected by consumers and landlords - but now being seen to be one of the most resilient, essential and exciting sectors in retrofit. If I were a betting man (and wasn't skint too) I'd be betting on energy storage solutions like GivEnergy, Sunamp and EcoFlow.
When The Clouds Pass
Consumers will have decentralised their power demands to local generation, and storage. The housing market will have driven homeowners to renovate wisely using green mortgages, finance and grants. Energy prices will have created a surge in decarbonisation and renewable energy use. Local builders will have attracted a a swathe of well paid apprentices and career switchers.
And the white heat of recession will have forged some of the most successful retrofit solutions that this country needs.
Well that's the dream - let's make it a reality.