Britain’s Heat Pump Moment and the Political Chaos Holding It Back
The British public is starting to warm to the idea of heat pumps. The government is gearing up to launch its long-promised Warm Homes Plan. And after years of flatlining, new research from Which? shows that one in three homeowners would now consider installing a low-carbon heating system.
So why are we still stuck at just 3 per cent adoption?
Because while the public is increasingly ready, the system is not. And nowhere is that clearer than in Britain’s politics, a nation showing an appetite for transformation but a chronic inability to deliver it.
The numbers behind the story
Which?’s 2025 Sustainability Tracker provides one of the most revealing snapshots of Britain’s retrofit psychology to date.
In its latest survey,
“ownership amongst homeowners remained at two per cent in 2023 and 2024, rising to just three per cent in June 2025.”
The report cautions policymakers not to mistake this for apathy:
“This inertia should not be mistaken for a lack of consumer interest in heat pumps.”
And there is plenty of evidence of interest. The same study found that
“awareness and understanding of what heat pumps are has risen from 56% to 64% and the number of homeowners open to installing one has climbed from a quarter (26%) to a third (33%).”
That is a meaningful cultural shift, millions more homeowners thinking about a technology that barely existed in the public lexicon five years ago.
Yet real-world progress remains glacial. Two-thirds (67 per cent) of those who know about heat pumps but have not installed one said cost was the main barrier, while 29 per cent doubted it would actually lower their bills.
Press Team
Energy prices remain volatile. Information is confusing. And installation quality, the make-or-break factor for performance, is still wildly inconsistent. Right now we have several MCS compliant installers who have a litany of legal cases for failed installations - which have come across our desk - that might be the tip of the iceberg or a apocryphal one offs but the bruises from ECO 4 is denting everything... One Welsh company is particularly under the spotlight.
But back to the case in hand.
Which? concludes that
“homeowners are increasingly open to choosing a heat pump, but they’re being held back by high upfront costs, uncertainty about running costs and a lack of confidence in technology that is still unfamiliar for many.”
A political economy problem, not a technology one
With Nathan Gambling and his master heat engineers proving the engineering can be mastered (sic). This therefore means it's a question of delivery.
The Climate Change Committee says that half of all UK homes must switch to a low-carbon heating system by 2040 to meet net zero. That is around 13 million installations in 15 years, a mobilisation on the scale of post-war reconstruction.
Yet while ministers talk of energy security and consumer choice, the UK has endured a decade of stop-start funding and conflicting signals. The Boiler Upgrade Scheme, recently lifted to £7,500 per home, helps but not enough to change the curve.
Affordability, trust and advice remain the missing pieces.
The industry view: a market on the move
The Heat Pump Association (HPA) adds perspective. Its 2024 figures show a record year:
- Sales of hydronic heat pumps up 63 per cent, to nearly 100,000 units.
- Installer training certifications up 15 per cent.
Encouraging, yes, but the UK installs only 3.5 heat pumps per 1,000 households, compared with 60 in Finland and over 40 in Norway. At this pace, the CCC’s 2040 target is fantasy.
Both Which? and the HPA point to the same truth: there is no shortage of intent, only a shortage of coherence.
The politics of paralysis
Nowhere illustrates this better than Kent County Council, where Reform UK, the self-styled insurgents of British politics, have spent the past month mired in chaos.
A leaked video showed Reform councillors trading insults and walk-outs. Within days four were suspended.
It matters because local authorities are the delivery agents of the Warm Homes Plan, coordinating grants, installers and advice hubs. When one major county collapses into infighting, retrofit delivery grinds to a halt.
Reform’s meltdown in Kent is not just a spectacle; it is a warning. From planning to heat-pump grants, instability at the top cascades into paralysis on the ground.
Meanwhile, the Green Party surges past the Conservatives
While Reform implodes, another movement is accelerating.
The Green Party of England and Wales has just confirmed that its membership has overtaken the Conservatives’, making it the third-largest political party in the UK.
Steph Brawn
It is a symbolic turning point, proof that climate and energy are no longer fringe concerns.
The Green surge mirrors Which?’s findings: a public that wants action on energy, climate and fairness but cannot see competence or clarity from the old guard.
From culture war to competence war
In the vacuum of delivery, we have had distraction instead: culture wars over boilers, myths about migrants, and performative rows about “net-zero costs.”
Reform UK’s Kent implosion is the inevitable hangover from that politics, slogans without systems.
If the migrant-mismanagement myth finally fades, if voters realise Britain’s real crisis is not immigration but implementation, then a new politics of competence could emerge. And that is exactly what the retrofit transition demands.
The Warm Homes Plan: Britain’s credibility test
The government’s imminent Warm Homes Plan aims to move 90 per cent of gas- or oil-heated homes to electric systems such as heat pumps.
If it succeeds, Britain could finally begin catching up with Europe, cutting gas imports, lowering bills and decarbonising heating, our hardest-to-tackle sector.
If it fails, we lock ourselves into another decade of fossil-fuel dependency just as global momentum shifts elsewhere.
Which? warns that to succeed,
“the government’s Warm Homes Plan must offer a combination of grant funding and financial products that make costs more affordable,” and crucially, must “ensure that people have access to good quality independent advice and reliable installers.”
Those are not optional extras; they are the operating instructions for credibility.
Trust, cost and clarity: the triad of change
To rebuild confidence, Britain must close three gaps:
- Financial trust. Make heat pumps genuinely affordable with grants, green mortgages and transparent lifetime costs.
- Installation trust. Guarantee quality through universal, enforced MCS (or Flexi-Orb) certification.
- Information trust. Fund independent, local advice so homeowners can make informed choices.
Without these, even the best subsidy scheme will falter.
Proof that Britain can do it when the right people lead
And just when cynicism feels inevitable, the installer community itself proves that excellence is possible.
Heating educator Nathan Gambling recently revealed data from Adam Chapman’s latest heat pump design, an approach so efficient it is still creating waves across the trade. Chapman’s meticulous system design process, focusing on balance and real-world efficiency, has delivered comfort and running costs once thought impossible in typical British homes.
It is a quietly radical moment, evidence that innovation does not have to wait for Whitehall. The future is being prototyped in workshops and living rooms by engineers who care more about performance than politics.
The message is clear: it can work. The technology is ready, the public is open, and the best installers are already showing the way. What is missing is leadership capable of matching that professionalism.
Olivia Smalley
A political moment hiding in plain sight
In the past year we have seen:
- Record industry growth (HPA)
- Rising homeowner interest (Which?)
- The Green Party’s membership surge
- Reform’s implosion in its first test of power
Together they mark a pivot from debate about green policy to delivery of it. When homeowners say, “I’m open to a heat pump,” they are not virtue-signalling; they are asking government and industry to prove it works.
If politics cannot deliver, the public will
Should the Warm Homes Plan stumble, industry and communities will fill the gap through cooperatives, local funds and evidence-led storytelling platforms.
But scale still matters. Britain cannot retrofit 27 million homes through volunteerism alone. The challenge now is to match grassroots ingenuity with institutional competence.
The moral and economic case
This is about more than carbon:
- Energy security. Every heat pump reduces our reliance on imported gas.
- Economic resilience. Retrofit creates skilled jobs in every region.
- Public health. Warm, efficient homes mean fewer hospital admissions.
Delaying the transition costs more than doing it.
The choice ahead
Two futures beckon:
- One where the Warm Homes Plan works, costs fall, trust rises and Britain regains energy independence.
- Another where the plan falters, political chaos deepens and public frustration hardens into apathy.
The Which? survey shows the public is ready. It is politics that needs to catch up.
Warming up to reality
Britain’s heat pump revolution is not waiting for new technology; it is waiting for competent leadership.
The Which? data show public readiness. The HPA data show industry momentum. The Green surge shows political appetite. And the Kent fiasco shows what happens when slogans meet systems: chaos.
If the next phase of Britain’s energy transition is to succeed, it must be led not by noise but by competence.
Because in the end, the question “Will it work?” is no longer rhetorical; it is the test of our national maturity.