We Don't Need To Build 1.5 Million Homes: Here's Why

Labour’s Cornered Rat Moment
Angela Rayner finds herself boxed in by her own pledge: 1.5 million new homes or public defeat. As Vladimir Putin’s “cornered rat” analogy reminds us, a trapped rat may bite, but escape is preferable. In housing policy, that escape hatch is retrofit.

The Retrofit Escape Hatch

Rather than commit fresh carbon and capital to thousands of new builds, Labour could meet its manifesto promise - and honour net-zero, by upgrading and re-using existing stock. With 670 000 dwellings available from existing historic buildings and 1 million vacant homes already standing idle, retrofit offers a zero-sum path to filling the gap without blowing our carbon budget.

Historic England’s Blueprint

Ian Morrison, Head of Retrofit at Historic England, dispels myths of complexity and cost:

“There is no historic building that cannot have its energy efficiency improved… If we can do solar panels on cathedrals, we could do them on any property.”

He underscores the scale of the prize:

“A minimum of 670 000 new homes can be converted from our existing vacant historic buildings… buildings over 100 years old.”

His mission: show through exemplar projects that heat pumps, insulation, window treatments and discreet solar arrays can sensitively deliver comfort, cut bills and secure heritage.

Anna Moore’s Funding Truth

Anna Moore, CEO of retrofit specialists Domna, brings the funding reality into focus:

“We retrofit about 15 000 homes a year, matching capital to shovel-ready projects.”

Her figures are stark:

• 1 million long-term vacant properties nationwide.
• 4 400 vacancies in Bath alone could yield 3 000-5 000 affordable homes.
• Upgrading a poor-performing home (EPC D and below) costs around £5 000, far below market speculation.
• Post-retrofit, properties enjoy 30-40 percent uplift, and a potential £2 trillion of capital-value improvement across the UK.

Moore argues that compulsory purchase at auction, coupled with retrofit grants, would be “a heck of a lot cheaper” and greener, than new builds.

Industry & Skills Capacity: UKGBC & FMB

A chorus of bodies confirms that the supply chain can, and must deliver:

• UK Green Building Council (UKGBC)’s Local Authority Retrofit Accelerator shows councils can become retrofit hubs, unlocking carbon-light regeneration.
• Federation of Master Builders (FMB) warns of an SME skills crunch:
  • 42 percent of small builders delay jobs for lack of labour.
  • Workloads fell 8 percent in Q4 2024 despite rising demand.
  • 39 percent cite skills shortages as a major barrier.
  • Net loss of 100 000 construction workers since 2019 demands 250 000 new recruits by 2032-more reason to stabilise work via retrofit’s steady flow.

These endorsements underline that, with targeted training and funding, Britain’s builders can shift from feast-and-famine new builds to sustained retrofit programmes.

Calling Out the Misrepresentation

Speculation about the building targets was also pushed out to media pundits. I've met Rory (had tea in his flat and filmed him for an interview) I'm sure they are great people. But in this instance - they have got the UKREiiF message wrong;

On the podcast The Rest Is Politics, Rory Stewart and Alistair Campbell echoed major house builders’ “Labour can’t build” narrative, claiming:

“Not one single person in the room thought 1.5 million could be built… we’d be lucky to make half the number that Labour’s promised.” Alistair Campbell

Yet their analysis omitted retrofit’s vast untapped stock and cost-effective solutions. By repeating lobby-favoured talking points “too niche,” “too expensive” they sidelined the very route Labour needs to escape its corner.

Shielding Labour from Developer Capture and Reform Populism

Capitulating to big-builder demands and ignoring retrofit plays directly into Reform UK’s hands. We're not interested in the politics of either incumbent parties but a Labour failure is a gift. Not to Reform - but to people not getting the housing they need.

Reform’s voters are disillusioned by perceived political capture:

• Developer capture: fast-track planning, unlimited new-build subsidies and diluted energy standards would cement the power of national house builders, validating Reform’s “politicians for sale” narrative.
• Reform’s appeal: by highlighting Labour’s dependence on developer favours, Reform paints itself as the true champion of “ordinary voters” frustrated by slow, insider-driven policy.

Retrofit, by contrast, offers Labour a populist-friendly, green-growth story:

1. Local Jobs, Local Accountability
   Retrofit projects are delivered by small, regional firms, directly addressing FMB’s SME workforce concerns and demonstrating Labour’s support for high-street tradespeople.
2. Community-Led Regeneration
   Converting empty heritage and vacant homes into affordable housing strengthens local councils, reverses neglect, and undercuts Reform’s critique of “disconnected politicians.”
3. Tangible Voter Benefits
   Reduced energy bills, preserved historic neighbourhoods and new affordable dwellings deliver immediate improvements that voters can see and feel, neutralising Reform’s “nothing changes” charge.

By championing retrofit, Labour sidesteps the developer lobby’s power play and undercuts Reform UK’s populist pitch (which will be no good for retrofit) reasserting itself as the party of real-world solutions.

A Roadmap for Labour and The Country

Labour still has a chance to turn this into a historic victory. Even if the Conservatives were still in power - we would be urging the government to do this:

1. Adopt Minimum Energy Performance Standards (MEPS)
   Legislate real-use, carbon-based standards for all homes over 100 years old and long-term vacancies, supported by Historic England guidance.
2. Create a Vacant Homes Retrofit Fund
   Underwrite upfront costs for councils and SMEs through grants and revolving loans, especially to compulsory-purchase and retrofit empty stock.
3. Fast-Track Capital via a National Wealth Fund
   Mobilise private investment by guaranteeing loans to shovel-ready retrofit projects, as exemplified by Domna's public-private pilots.
4. Scale Accredited Retrofit Training
   Expand Rachel Reeves’s £620 million programme to cover heritage retrofit skills ensuring specifiers, installers and end-users are fully equipped.
5. Establish a Cross-Party Retrofit Taskforce
   Shield retrofit policy from political swings and lobby pressure, ensuring continuity through legislation and oversight.

By heeding expert insight from Morrison’s heritage know-how and Moore’s funding figures to UKGBC’s capacity models, FMB’s workforce data, and the clear rebuttal of podcast misrepresentations, Labour can reclaim the housing debate. Rather than biting in its corner, the party can offer an escape hatch: retrofit as the bridge to 1.5 million homes, net-zero targets, and a green, inclusive future.